Well after weeks of computer/internet problems I think I have finally gotten most of them resolved. Now it's time to take a vacation! Heading off to play some golf..... Looks like July is gonna be a slow month here on the Kaboom
The biggest loser.....
It's been a while since we saw a house here so lets take a look at a home that has fallen in value a whopping 63%. 16622 Catalonia Dr is a 5400 s/f Mcmansion up in Woodcrest. This behemoth sold new in Dec. 2006 for $1.381 million. Today it is listed at $512k. It's an REO now so no short sale BS to deal with. The price is solid based on comps so I don't think it will get bid way up. I'd say this area has "corrected" back to about where it would have been had there been no bubble.
I've looked at quite a lot of this model in this tract. I'd never buy one of them though. They are just way too big. If you have a family of 20 or yearn for the MTV "Cribs" lifestyle then these might be for you. I'd prefer something I can afford to maintain, heat, cool, etc.
The ups and downs in the IE
I noticed Housingtracker.net was running again after being offline for a while. Looking at the median listing price data it looks to be pretty stable over the last year or so at $240k. It's kinda fun looking at the numbers and seeing the peak in 2006 at over $460k. Then the crash to the low in early 2009 of $217k. It's crept up to the current $240k in the summer and fall of 2009. In the areas I watch the prices seem to have leveled out. There have been a few great deals closed compared to the comps but these all look like inside deals. Most (if not all) of them never hit the open market. Fraud? I'm sure quite a few of them were technically fraudulent. But other than those the sales prices are about the same today as in late 2008.
The inventory numbers are another fun set to look at. We hit a high of nearly 60,000 in late 2007 when the market seized up as prices fell, buyers vanished and lending dried up. The inventory started to fall once the government started all the bailout/workout BS. The low water mark for inventory was around the holidays last year. We have been creeping up ever since. Banks are starting to ramp up the foreclosures (more slowly than anticipated though). Short sales are now being encouraged by banks and that's also helping pump up the numbers. We are getting close to 32,000 but there is still a serious shortage of good properties. I'm seeing lots of overpriced listings and lots of trash. The pearls are few and far between.
For you history buffs, here's the data for the last few years.
Now do you think prices have bottomed? The inflation adjusted price chart from Schiller still puts prices the highest they've been in the last 130 years. Of course that chart does not factor in the size of the homes or any other changes to the home. It just takes the median price (adjusted for inflation). Since homes are probably at least twice the size and have many more features, you could certainly make the argument that they could be less expensive. I'd say the chart is useful for entertainment purposes only or possibly useful if used on a cross section of older homes. But using it across the board when in the last 10 to 20 years the size and extravagance of homes has gone way up isn't practical.
The inventory numbers are another fun set to look at. We hit a high of nearly 60,000 in late 2007 when the market seized up as prices fell, buyers vanished and lending dried up. The inventory started to fall once the government started all the bailout/workout BS. The low water mark for inventory was around the holidays last year. We have been creeping up ever since. Banks are starting to ramp up the foreclosures (more slowly than anticipated though). Short sales are now being encouraged by banks and that's also helping pump up the numbers. We are getting close to 32,000 but there is still a serious shortage of good properties. I'm seeing lots of overpriced listings and lots of trash. The pearls are few and far between.
For you history buffs, here's the data for the last few years.
| Month | SFH+Condo Inventory | 25th Percentile | Median | 75th Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2010 | 31,100 | $150,750 | $242,450 | $422,500 |
| May 2010 | 30,478 | $150,600 | $240,960 | $420,180 |
| Apr 2010 | 29,844 | $149,950 | $237,975 | $412,450 |
| Mar 2010 | 27,466 | $149,910 | $235,000 | $399,978 |
| Feb 2010 | 25,888 | $147,675 | $230,975 | $398,225 |
| Jan 2010 | 25,155 | $147,450 | $229,225 | $397,500 |
| Dec 2009 | 25,435 | $149,225 | $232,125 | $403,737 |
| Nov 2009 | 26,575 | $149,920 | $238,400 | $420,010 |
| Oct 2009 | 27,569 | $149,175 | $236,250 | $423,450 |
| Sep 2009 | 27,493 | $149,925 | $239,500 | $435,988 |
| Aug 2009 | 28,410 | $148,882 | $237,880 | $431,400 |
| Jul 2009 | 29,257 | $147,313 | $235,225 | $429,250 |
| Jun 2009 | 30,584 | $144,980 | $229,760 | $414,790 |
| May 2009 | 32,614 | $143,725 | $225,000 | $401,973 |
| Apr 2009 | 35,365 | $140,000 | $219,850 | $387,500 |
| Mar 2009 | 38,625 | $139,960 | $217,080 | $369,580 |
| Feb 2009 | 40,003 | $143,125 | $219,148 | $364,750 |
| Jan 2009 | 41,594 | $148,976 | $222,615 | $364,140 |
| Dec 2008 | 43,995 | $155,997 | $228,843 | $371,270 |
| Nov 2008 | 45,466 | $162,791 | $234,869 | $378,171 |
| Oct 2008 | 47,030 | $169,812 | $241,097 | $385,301 |
| Sep 2008 | 48,794 | $179,945 | $253,064 | $396,132 |
| Aug 2008 | 48,928 | $189,183 | $264,707 | $410,471 |
| Jul 2008 | 50,281 | $198,565 | $274,909 | $423,742 |
| Jun 2008 | 50,874 | $209,673 | $291,266 | $445,107 |
| May 2008 | 51,306 | $220,983 | $308,857 | $455,220 |
| Apr 2008 | 52,578 | $237,943 | $319,005 | $475,726 |
| Mar 2008 | 53,200 | $252,057 | $336,952 | $493,538 |
| Feb 2008 | 53,347 | $265,768 | $352,536 | $507,636 |
| Jan 2008 | 53,971 | $277,607 | $366,177 | $518,359 |
| Dec 2007 | 55,808 | $289,994 | $374,137 | $534,693 |
| Nov 2007 | 58,257 | $301,146 | $387,907 | $546,581 |
| Oct 2007 | 57,873 | $312,784 | $398,326 | $561,045 |
| Sep 2007 | 59,183 | $317,841 | $407,566 | $564,659 |
| Aug 2007 | 56,879 | $328,547 | $415,993 | $578,136 |
| Jul 2007 | 56,592 | $337,269 | $423,300 | $592,323 |
| Jun 2007 | 55,370 | $341,823 | $426,332 | $601,018 |
| May 2007 | 53,371 | $347,533 | $434,838 | $609,832 |
| Apr 2007 | 51,233 | $350,796 | $440,705 | $615,759 |
| Mar 2007 | 46,932 | $354,807 | $444,272 | $620,370 |
| Feb 2007 | 44,865 | $355,285 | $444,140 | $620,370 |
| Jan 2007 | 41,962 | $355,100 | $444,712 | $620,370 |
| Dec 2006 | 44,794 | $358,810 | $445,173 | $620,370 |
| Nov 2006 | 47,124 | $359,605 | $445,463 | $621,387 |
| Oct 2006 | 48,067 | $360,038 | $449,609 | $621,387 |
| Sep 2006 | 47,561 | $363,553 | $450,500 | $621,457 |
| Aug 2006 | 46,408 | $365,700 | $453,627 | $625,172 |
| Jul 2006 | 44,460 | $369,940 | $456,393 | $636,981 |
| Jun 2006 | 41,618 | $370,894 | $460,939 | $643,759 |
| May 2006 | 38,227 | $370,894 | $461,100 | $649,048 |
| Apr 2006 | 35,332 | $370,576 | $461,100 | $652,575 |
Now do you think prices have bottomed? The inflation adjusted price chart from Schiller still puts prices the highest they've been in the last 130 years. Of course that chart does not factor in the size of the homes or any other changes to the home. It just takes the median price (adjusted for inflation). Since homes are probably at least twice the size and have many more features, you could certainly make the argument that they could be less expensive. I'd say the chart is useful for entertainment purposes only or possibly useful if used on a cross section of older homes. But using it across the board when in the last 10 to 20 years the size and extravagance of homes has gone way up isn't practical.
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