The housing market hasn't bottomed out yet. For the third quarter, the closely-watched S&P Case-Shiller national home-price index fell 16.6%, and experts are predicting further declines. Of the top 100 markets, here are 10 with the worst forecasts.
Only 2 of the top 10 are not in California!1) LA, Ca
2) Stockton, Ca
3) Riverside, Ca. A popular boom earlier this decade fueled runaway prices for single-family homes in this market, which includes San Bernardino and Ontario, outside Los Angeles. Median prices are expected to fall to $197,000 in 2009, down nearly $60,000 from 2008.
Well, we are already way past $197k. Riverside County's median is currently hovering around $185k and the city of Riverside is currently at $180k. I'm not sure what they are using to come up with the numbers. The report does not say if it's just SFR's or SFRs and condos. It doesnt say if it's the city median or the county. Thier forcast is for a drop of 23% this year and another 5% in 2010. So let's take those declines and use the numbers from DataQuick.
According to DataQuick, the Riverside County median was $209k at the end of 2008. If we factor in a 23% fall for 2009 that puts the median right around $160K at the end of the year. Currently prices are stable but that's probably just a factor of the season and the propping up of sales by all the government intervention. It's certainly not unreasonable to think prices will fall to the $160k range by the end of the year. That's only a $25k drop. We've seen the median drop 10K in on month. As recently as April we saw drops of $7k in one month.
Rounding out the top 10,
Miami
Sacramento
Santa Ana
Fresno
San Diego
Bakersfield
Washington DC