What will your home be worth in 2012?

Businessweek took a stab at answering that question. Unfortunately they only used a few metro areas and the nearest is LA. The median for Q4 in 2008 was $350k according to their data. They think in 2012 the median will be $253K. Look like they feel LA still has a loooong way left to fall. I can't argue with their findings. The coastal areas still have not fallen nearly as much as the IE. They can only defy gravity for so long.

So here is what BW had to say;

When BusinessWeek set out to determine what housing prices would be in the year 2012, we knew that there was no way to know for sure. But in working with the Brookfield, Wis.-based research firm Fiserv, we weighed historical data against current trends to get a bead on which way the markets might jump at one-year increments. By combining data, we were able to get a pretty good idea of what home prices would be in three years' time. Across the board, real-estate prices will continue to drop before rising slightly by the fourth quarter of 2011. Why is that important? Given the wretched state of the real-estate market today, both homeowners and potential buyers might be better able to make an informed decision about when, and whether, they should move. Obviously, we can't guarantee that our data will hold up — although we think it will.


Personally I think a better question is, "what will your home be worth in 2020 or 2030". Going that far out is really hard to do with volitile markets. But housing really shoudn't be a volitile market. I'de be very surprised to see much change by 2020. I still think we will see negative movment for another few years. It might be only small percentages in the IE but I don't see how it can go up with the current problems. I expect several years of flatline or very minimal increases after than. Bottom line, I think in 2020 prices will be about where they are today. That's why I think if you are going to buy you'de better be in it for the long haul.

California

Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale

What a home will be worth in 2012*: $253,328

Q4 2008 price: $350,000

Projected price change by MSA**: -27.6%

Projected price change by state: -13.2%

Los Angeles, best known as the home of Hollywood, is home to excellent universities such as the University of Southern California and large corporations such as aerospace contractor Northrop Grumman. Southern California has been particularly damaged by the downturn in the housing market, and home values are expected to remain soft.